April 11, 2003
Big Saturday Predictions and Dum Choices
I am a liberal handicapper: I possess a disdain for facts. I am also ruled by emotion, and sincere, so I fall into the "true believer" category, which is forgivable but still somewhat pathetic. On the subway ride into my day job, I reviewed the sheets for the Big Three races on Saturday and have made some choices, which I will share with you. Start with the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Let's start with my incompetance at handicapping anything at Keeneland. And forever replica watch Peace Rules, the prohibitive favorite, ridden by Edgar Prado, who I like very much, and trained by Robert Frankel, who I like as well. His father is Jules. I remember Jules. He was a cute horse. I don't want to watch any of these three races hoping that a front runner stays in front. It wreaks havoc on my digestive tract. Peace Rules runs that way. I'm not betting him, but he will probably win. I want a piece of the place and show action. The next favorite is Badge of Silver. Another front runner. Although a horse for the course, I hate the odds. Nope. Offlee Wild with all day Pat Day. 6-1 morning line. Will it stay that way? Dunno. Wild Again the sire is a rapist in the breeding shed, totally tears up the mares, having watched him do his stuff where Seattle Slew was in 2001, Three Chimneys. No leather protective gear on the mare, what an ordeal. Anyway, I'll bet him somehow. Probably to win only if his odds stink. He did ok at Churchill, and this factors in as a plus. I would like to bet a horse who has a good shot at the Derby. I am eliminating the following: Crowned Dancer, Great Notion only. Now here is Joan the Liberals Off the Wall Picks for some nice action, and my reasons: Ten Cents a Shine. Lucas, Lucas, Lucas. Mike Smith, Mike Smith, Mike Smith. Kind of like Bush and the Iraqisthe Good Guys win. Devil His Due. Come from behind. $2 place and show. Lion Tamer. Wills Way. Bold Lachee beat him in the Flamingo in 96. Adaptable running style. Todd Pletcher training, high % jockey John Velasquez. Who is also riding a horse in New York. Stupid. Cornelius? Still, $2 across the board. Brancusi, the Italian Horse. Expensive. Lost big in the Champagne but look who was riding him, Jerry what have you done for me lately Bailey. Took nicely to Farina. Has traveled around. $2 place and show. Lots of Sizzle. Gelding. Dallas Keen, didnt he train some chestnut a few years back, one of those tear jerker Derby stories, or am I all fubar? $2 place and show. Now on to the Arkansas Derby. Didnt check the odds here, no overwhelming favorite I see. I dont have a whole lot to say here because I dont believe the Derby winner will come from this race. Im not a man, so if Im wrong, I dont care. The hotties here are Man Among Men, son of Gentlemen, who is no gentleman, having also visited him at the farm. Aloof, hates people, didnt come near the fence for a mint. Anyway, Man has a nice running style, good jockey, great trainer, a nice guy, Mandella, a mensch. I got over my rage at him for running that rabbit to beat Cigar when he was trying to beat Citations consecutive win record and have discovered he is very nice. The other hottie is Region of Merit, expensive, adaptable running style, son of Touch Gold who I was in love with way back when. Also good trainer, high % jockey. Saint Liam, son of Ballado, too lightly raced for me to back, only on principle. Not fair to the horse, or the fan for that matter. May sit out this race, or bet the hotties if the price is right. Now for the Wood. Im hearing New York Hero and Empire Maker. Ok, Empire Maker will rule out exotics. Jerry Bailey, the spoiler, the guy who wrecks my wallet at Saratoga, the great jockey acknowledged, but like Paul McCartney is considered a great rock star, I dont like his music. I dont like Baileys music, alright? This is the horse unless Bailey throws a stinker. Here again is Joan the Liberals Hare Brained rationale for my bets on this race: Spite the Devil, $2 across the board. Mike Luzzi, ALLEN JERKENS ALLEN JERKENS ALLEN JERKENS, Devil His Due, grandpa is Cryptoclearance, I am in love! And best of all folks, G-E-L-D-I-N-G. Many races, horse for the course. God in heaven, bring this horse to the finish line ahead of the rest!!! Senor Swinger has it in him, only knock is BBBBbaffert. Imagine him with the Derby Cup on his head, Im sorry, not my style. Gary Stevens. At a price, $2 place and show. Has got it in him. Indy Dancer. Todd Pletcher. John Velasquez again. Come from behind running style. Horse for course. AP Indy for crying out loud. $2 win place show. Thats it. If there are any material changes, I will try to get in and update my sheet.