April 30, 2009
The 2009 Kentucky Derby
First and foremost I will be livid if a lightly run horse like Dunkirk wins. It's bad enough he has excellent connections, excellent breeding and excellent works; he hasn't run as a two year old, he has three races under his belt. If he wins it is going to piss me off because it'll be Big Brown all over again. Summer Bird is another three racer with nice breeding going off at 50:1. His owners belong in jail. Horse heaven help us all.
That being said, I am putting a lot of weight on the conventional surface runners and dissing completely the artificial only winners. This is pure speculation. I put a lot of weight on consistency, I love to see success at hitting the board at Churchill Downs and put some weight on success in the muck (rain is forecast on Saturday). I also go by name. Eleanor Belmont, owner of Man O'War had issues with bad names. I think she was right.
I have Friesan Fire in my future pool so if he wins I'll get a decent price. I like Papa Clem and General Quarters. I also like I Want Revenge breitling copy watches but I have a problem with spectacular winners of the Wood Memorial (hello Bellamy Road). I like Musket Man, but I don't think he can get the distance. Maybe he'll hit the board.
Here's the thing: a lot of closers means that maybe someone can get out there and wire the field like Join in the Dance or something horrendous like that (doubtful) however the absolute worst thing that can happen is a Dunkirk win. If Dunkirk wins, don't bother asking me on Monday how was my weekend. I may put him in my exotics but absolutely NOT in the top spot.
When it comes right down to it, I'm a money whore, so I'll like horses more as their numbers move. Like i am going across the board on Papa Clem, Musket Man and General Quarters; I'll use I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire ONLY in the top spot; my experience shows that favorites don't hit the board unless they win. I'll waste some more money on Chocolate Candy simply because I love Mike Smith and love his sire Candy Ride.
And that's about it. I won't get cute with anything because I lost all of my money on the preps. Only Friesan Fire came through for me.